Geoduck's World

Random Events in a Disorganized Universe

ISIS Can’t Win
So ISIS or ISIL, or Diash, or IS or whatever the hell you’re calling yourself these days, you want to rule the world. Your stated goal is to establish a worldwide Islamic Caliphate to rule over the Earth. Yeah…good luck with that.

You see it’s all about the numbers.

There’s 1.6 billion Muslims (1) in the world but the total world population is 7.3 billion (3) or just a bit short of five to one against you.
But wait there are several different sects of Islam. You’re Sunni which are admittedly around 90% of Muslims. But you don’t even like all the Sunni Muslims. You’re part of the Salafi/Wahabi sub sect. They only number about 4.6 million (2). Add that to the total and now you’re down to about 1600 to one against you.
And then most, maybe 10% of the adherents of Salafi/Wahabism would support you enough to do anything. Remember even Osama Bin Ladin’s family turned their backs on him when he really started hurting business. Admittedly the rest of the world might be slow to rouse, but one thing people will fight for is to not have a religious/political system forced upon them. You can count on pretty high rates of opposition. So now you’re down to 460,000 followers most of whom will only donate money against likely 75% of the worlds population that will actively push back. You’re now around 16,000 to one against you. These aren’t good odds.

Ok true you have a few thousand volunteers from outside your area but we both know a little secret about them. You don't value them, they too are "infidel" to you. This is why you tend to use them up as suicide bombers and on missions from which they won't return. It saves you the trouble of killing them yourself. Even if you did somehow end up with a country or caliphate or whatever you want to call it, we both know these people would be the first against the wall after you took power. The last thing a new revolutionary government wants is a bunch of revolutionaries around. Especially if they've already shown that they will turn against whatever country they swear allegiance to at any time. Once these people realize you are doing whatever you can to get them killed and they won’t EVER take part in the idyllic “Islamic State” you have sold them on, they’ll turn on you. If you’re lucky they’ll just leave.

And speaking of suicide bombers, how are you doing for weapons? Sure you have a lot of hand guns, pistols, rifles, Kalashnikovs, RPGs and such but those aren't strategic weapons. They aren't even tactical except in the very local sense. Ok you have whatever artillery you've been able to steal from Syrian and Iraqi forces but they're getting destroyed, you can't make more, and anyway ammunition is running low. So you've been resorting to suicide bombers, home made chemical weapons, booby traps, and car and truck bombs. These are not the sort of things you can stage a protracted offensive campaign with. Indeed they aren;’t much more than the people in the Warsaw ghetto used. See what I’m saying? Plus the thing about suicide bombers is they are exceedingly ineffective for the cost. Just ask the Japanese how well their Kamikaze turned the tide of World War Two. For a closer example, look at the Paris attack on the 18th of November 2015. Seven of the eight attackers in the concert hall and three of them at the stadium blew themselves up. The explosions ended up killing fewer people than the number of bombers that died. Most did NOTHING but kill the bomber. The deaths in that attack were caused by gunfire, not C4 belts. This is a history that repeats itself across the world. Every once in a great while a suicide bomber will score but most, like the majority of dumb bombs dropped or grenades thrown, or bullets fired, do little. The difference is that with the latter weapons the fighter can try again, the soldier can shoot again. Suicide attacks are ruinously expensive in terms of outcome. They are useful for scaring people but that’s all. It does not work in the modern battlefield.

So how are you set for real modern weapons? Air power? Nope. Drones, satellites, cruise misses, radars, AWCS, ships? Nope, nope, nope, nope. Airborne special forces, well trained soldiers? Not even close. You have amateurs, many of whom have never held a gun before they arrive. The fact is you are not only severely outgunned by any measure, you are utterly outmanned, both in quality and quantity of soldiers. This is becoming clear whenever your franchises come up against real armies. Boko Harum is near to being wiped out. Other “IS” affiliated forces elsewhere are getting their ass handed to them whenever they come up against a real army with real weapons. This is even beginning to show in your region when your pitiful rabble in stolen pickup trucks comes up against real forces, like the Turks or, increasingly the Iraqi forces. You are loosing ground. On top of that, now that you've brought Russia, China, the EU, and the US into this battle, you're up against literally all of the real armies of the whole world. Even the Taliban were smart enough to not escalate their war outside of their own area and you pissed off the most powerful military forces on Earth. All you have are a few thousand irregulars of questionable loyalty with small arms. Oh sure, you will carry out some spectacular events, kill some people, blow up some things but overall you simply don't have a chance. It’s only a matter of time before the powers of the world decide they have had enough of the roach in the corner that is you, and squash it. So why don't you save everyone a bunch of hassle and stop being a dick. You simply cannot win.

But then you know that don't you.

I don't mean the people doing the fighting either. They're idiots driven by propaganda and zeal. Most haven't realized yet that they can’t prevail against laser guided bombs and armour. They can’t win against a real army of real soldiers with real weapons and real support from real governments. And that’s what’s coming, sooner than they think. No, I mean those of you at the top of your organization know all of this. You talk about a world wide Caliphate, but you know it’s not going to happen. And I know why you are doing it:


The organization is bringing in millions from selling stolen oil, looted artifacts, and extortion against the very people they say they are establishing the state for. Where is the money going? It’s not going to providing services, medicine, and support for the people they rule over. It’s not rebuilding buildings, roads, and bridges hit by air strikes. The vast majority of it is not even going to buy weapons for the people on the many fronts. Indeed you aren’t even paying the people doing the fighting for you. You said you were going to set up your own monetary system and began stripping all the gold and other precious metals from the areas you control (4). But the coins released were only plated and were worthless. Where has the gold gone? It hasn’t been turned into currency or anything useful. Ah but of course, gold is portable and it has been moved. It has been stashed by those of you at the top. Islamic State is just the biggest fraud in human history. A Ponzi scheme on a global scale. You who started it are raking in the cash, and stashing the gold, while the suckers that joined later only get a bullet.

What’s with the videotaped executions and hideous acts that violate both International and Islamic Law? I know it is just advertising. It brings in more suckers. You know the people who do the fighting and dying for you in a war that you are profiting from. Those of you are who are running this are stashing away as much as you can and laying plans for an escape route when this all falls down.

You know it's not going to work. You’re working for yourselves, not Islam, not the average person in the Middle East, not for the third world. No, those of you at the top of this fraud are fully aware of what you are doing. You are just in it to skim what you can while you let others do the bleeding. then you’ll slip away in the night.

And I can't think of any greater insult to Islam and The Prophet than that.

1) Pew Research, the Future of Global Muslem Population. 2010 estimate, though the 20120 estimate was much the same percentage wise.
2) Wikipedia, Wahhabism Population article. based on work by Mehrdad Izady.
3) World Population Clock
4) Wikipedia, Islamic State of Iraq and the Lavant, Monitary System article.